Hurrivcanes: when too much information is not enough

An hurricane put people of science - meteorologists - on television and all around us. Of Irene, much was said before, during, and after. There was a high probability, but not a certainty, that it could be a catastrophic storm. The danger was not the strength of the storm; there have been plenty of stronger storms. The biggest danger was the storm's target, namely New York City.
For us, in central Massachusetts, the predictions were consistent and accurate - a strong storm with a lot of rain. At one point a couple of days before landfall, Irene was predicted to travel along the west end of our town. The final track was perhaps 30 miles west of here. I call that an excellent forecast.
It isn't a decision when we have a complete set of immutable facts. That's a conclusion. A decision is something you make when you're trying to assess probability and risk based on as much information as you have available.

We had plenty of information about Irene's forecasted track and too much about what every news outlet thought about it. I tried to avoid the news coverage of the anticipated storm. We'd have the tv on, but muted, turning on the sound only when the meteorologists were talking. (I like Kevin Lemanowiczon Fox 25 and the team at WCVB.)
Starting more than a week before, we had computer models giving us forecasts that also included confidence levels. As the hours and days progressed, the forecasts were tweaked and the confidence levels adjusted upward.
One of the big problems that we have with tropical storm forecasts is our over-reliance on the The Saffir-Simpson Scale. This metric categorizes storm strength by sustained wind speed and correlates a storm surge. Irene's greatest destructive power was not, however, its wind speed or storm surge, as feared. According the scale, it was barely a category 1 storm, with sustained winds in the upper 70s, as it hit the New England coast. The 11" of rain that destroyed much of central and southern Vermont isn't included in the model. As a result, it's easy to underestimate the potential danger of a storm if we focus primarily on the wind speed.
There have been occasional efforts (see Wilma's Rage Suggests New Hurricane Categories Needed )  to replace the S-S scale with something that assesses rainfall potential.
To date, however, we've not seen the meteorologists agree on a new metric. Herbert Saffir says that we should keep it simple. Simple may be accurate, but it's not sufficient.

A paywall around medical information

Medicine-by-Google (MBG), the practice of using the web for research about medical conditions, has been around for a long time. We develop a pain that we don't recognize or discover rash in an unexpected place and we head off to Google for some tips.
According to the Pew Research Center, two-thirds of us use the Internet to locate information about symptoms, conditions, product safety, and insurance. The quality of information available for free (or for free with registration) is generally quite good. With a bit of practice and a few guidelines, such as A User's Guide to Finding and Evaluating Health Information on the Web, you can do well. PubMed is one of the richest resources for publicly-available medical information.
What if, however, you need to dig deeper. You need to explore subtleties of side-effects to your medication. You have a collection of symptoms, sometimes called a syndrome, that have coalesced into a diagnosis. You've started treatment and you don't like what's happening.
The thousands of medical research journals generally don't publish their findings online for the public. You can typically find abstracts of articles, giving you a good summary of the research findings. Subscriptions to these journals range from the relatively modest $139/year for the weekly New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM). to over $400/year for the monthly Journal of Child Neurology. Most subscriptions offer both print and online access. Some, if you're lucky, will offer a lower price for online-only.
A few years ago, while I was being treated for a resistant condition, I bought a subscription to the NEJM, primarily for access to the back catalog of research. I found good stuff about the various medications I was trying. Once the condition stabilized, I let the subscription lapse.
To research more broadly, you need to go to a library, preferably a medical or academic library, that has subscription plans to the SAGE, JSTOR, MEDLINE, and others. In most cases, you can only access these services at the library's workstations. Access may be further restricted to medical or  library staff.
In an effort to preserve the value of their print editions, a few journals will embargo publication of their online material for up to a year. A research study that was published last November, for example, might only be available in hard copy until November of this year. That is, if the library has a hard copy subscription or any subscription at all.
Further, with budgets trimmed in all areas, sometimes these research libraries will drop subscriptions for less popular journals. (If the content is online, it's easy to determine how frequently the journals are used.) Important research findings are thus out of reach.
You don't have to be cynical to realize that there is money involved. The researchers are paid by the journals that publish the findings. The journals typically have a team of peer editors that reviews the report for quality, completeness, and accuracy. (We'll set aside the controversy over subsidized research for now.) The expense of the process is covered by subscriptions and advertising revenue, as is the case with any publication.
Considerable savings can result when you go to an online-only publication model. The savings aren't enough, though, to do away with subscription charges, no more than online-only access to books and newspapers.
There isn't a fast, cheap, and good solution or we would have found it already. This remains one of the hidden healthcare costs. Our solution for now is to remain ignorant of the potential valuable research that lies unreachable in the granite of the paywalls.
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Update: After the initial post, I found this from The Onion - Failing U.S. Economy No Reason At All To Stop Investing In Print Media, All Experts Agree

Mongolian reindeer crisis almost not averted

President Tarja Halonen of Finland arrived in Mongolia without reindeer.
Normally, that wouldn't be news. Most people arrive in most places without reindeer. I know of one person who toured Mongolia and, to my knowledge, she never considered bringing reindeer.
This meeting was different, however. The two countries have been discussing ways in which Finland could help to replenish the dwindling Mongolian reindeer populations. There had been diplomatic discussions about sending live reindeer, and how can I put this diplomatically, and reindeer eau de life to Mongolia.
News reports indicate that the meetings between President Halonen and Mongolian President Ts. Elbegdorj were cordial. There will be further discussions about mid-north-central Asian reindeer underpopulation.

Telegram Towns - Holden now on Facebook

As you may recall, I write a blog for Telegram Towns, the local online tactical wing of the Worcester Telegram & Gazette. Telegram Towns now has a Facebook page for Holden. My blog posts along with other news, blogs, and features will appear there as well.
Please Like us if you like us.

Focused More-On: Procrastination

[One of a occasional series. A bunch of years ago, I worked for a software company. It was hard work for long hours. At one point, senior management made the pronouncement that the development team needed to focus more on a particular aspect of the product. The QA manager and I agreed that we'd Focused More-ons.]

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Our neighbor, 15 or more years my senior, is pushing a wheelbarrow full of firewood across our back yard. It's firewood that's too large for our stove, but can be used in his. Embarrassed, I'm inside because I have a couple of cuts on my feet and so can't walk well, let alone work at the wood pile. (I thought that feet, once called "dinosaur feet" by our grandson, were indestructible. Not so.)
I have plenty to do from my desk, projects that require attention today and other things to schedule for the coming weeks.
While reviewing my scheduled tasks, I found myself wondering if I'll be walking ok by then. I'm sure that I'll be fine in a couple of days, so it's odd that I should be projecting my current limitation into the future.
Usually, we think that our future selves will be better, smarter, more energetic, more focused. That's one of the reasons that so many things get push off of today's list and onto tomorrow's (or worse, onto someday's). I can't figure that thing out today, but my tomorrow self will surely get it done.
Now, though, my future self doesn't look so strong. With my feet on the desk, facing away from the window so I don't have to watch our neighbor, I have already completed several of today's tasks.
Just when I thought I had this procrastination thing figured out, it turns itself inside out.
There's no shortage of advice on the matter of procrastination. There's a whole industry around Getting Things Done® and (GTD®)  (Yes, the phrase[1] and the abbreviation[2] are registered trademarks.) This is something slightly different. I need to plan things for next week and the week after because that's when other people are available.
This is different because the condition (my deflicted foot) is something new. I haven't had time to learn a new narrative for my future self. As a result, the future looks a lot more like the present than it ordinarily would. Once the injury either goes away or become permanent, I can resume my usual pattern of freely delegating work to the person I think I will be next Thursday.
n.b. I spent 45 minutes writing about procrastination.

Crime in suburbia

From The Landmark (subscription required): [Editor's note: There were 24 suspicious items this week and three lock-outs]
Holden
Monday, August  15
3:00 a.m. Male and female standing in middle ofroad talking loudly, Putnam Rd.
10:50 a.m. Suspicious black truck parked on Greystone Dr.
9:33 p.m. Female believes there are suspiciouspeople at party, Nelson St.
11:55 p.m. Caller reports hearing person threatening to rob fast-food business and a store, Main St.
Tuesday, August, 16
4:43 p.m. Police secure kitchen slider, Fireside Ln.
6:35 p.m. Caller states she has no power to vehicle, unable to move it out of roadway, Doyle Rd.
10:34 a.m.
11:01 a.m. Installation of child safety seat, Main St.
Wednesday, August 17
2:19 a.m. Police out with four individuals in parking lot, Main St.
8:23 a.m. Salisbury St. resident at station with trash thrown into his yard
9:32 a.m. Caller reports problem with coyote, Paugus Rd.
9:55 a.m. Suspicious person delivering phone books, Cook St.
9:57 a.m. Car seat installation, Main St.
12:51 p.m. Suspicious vehicle parked on private property, no one around, Reservoir St.
1:18 p.m. Suspicious vehicle with flashers on near intersection, Parker Ave./Glenwood St.
6:25 p.m. Two solicitors, one male and one female, Fairchild Dr.
6:47 p.m. Suspicious vehicle in parking lot, Shrewsbury St.
6:51 p.m. Suspicious vehicle, Main St. All set, person making phone call
7:05 p.m. Police ask group of kids at business to move along, Main St.
7:45 p.m. Police dispose of bottles in parking lot, Salisbury St.
9:08 p.m. Deer hit, Salisbury St.
11:11 p.m. Suspicious vehicle in parking lot, Main St.
Thursday, August  18
12:14 a.m. Person at station to pick up property, Main St.
4:40 p.m. Loose cows on Bond Rd. Rutland PD calling for animal control officer
5:57 p.m. Police assist with nine loose cows in roadway, Bond Rd.
7:05 p.m. Suspicious vehicle keeps driving into driveway, Reservoir St.
9:40 p.m. Someone in neighborhood ringing doorbells, Autumn Cir.
10:08 p.m. Suspicious vehicle, Main St.
10:21 p.m. Bat stuck in kitchen cabinet, Wildewillow Dr.
Friday, August 19
3:14 a.m. Cab company requesting welfare check on intoxicated passenger that will be dropped off on Crestview Dr., had fallen down stairs. Passenger changed destination
8:29 a.m. Police check on walker, Main St./Crestview Dr.
10:46 a.m. Suspicious white van in Newell Rd. area
Saturday, August 20
12:19 a.m. Suspicious incident, caller made threat against himself and then hung up, Mayo Dr.
8:17 a.m. Dead fox in front of house, Paxton Rd.
12:03 p.m. Cheerleaders in roadway, Main St.
5:32 p.m. Request for police to remove large group of youths from business parking lot, Main St.
8:05 p.m. Police remove skateboarders from post office parking lot, Princeton St.
9:28 p.m. Six loud teenagers appear to be under the influence, walking in Holden St.
Sunday, August 21
2:34 p.m. Suspicious vehicle, Cranbrook Dr.
Paxton
Monday, August 15
8:54 a.m. Homeowner’s “for sale” sign stolen, Marshall St.
1:53 p.m. Follow-up investigation, person not found, Iron Forge Rd.
9:35 p.m. Police assist person locked out of residence, Glen Ellen Rd.
Tuesday, August 16
4:24 p.m. Police conduct follow-up investigation, Iron Forge Rd.
Wednesday, August 17
7:55 a.m. Police assist person locked out of vehicle, Lancelot Dr.
8:07 a.m. Loose pitbull on Reservoir Rd.
8:42 a.m. Person at station believes his windshield was shot with a BB gun while traveling on Pleasant St. Damage was from stone kicked up by vehicle in front of him
8:56 p.m. Three or four teens running around house, Glen Ellen Rd. Kids playing flashlight tag
Thursday, August 18
12:31 p.m. Truck in roadway leaking fluid,Woodland Dr.
Friday, August 19
1:11 p.m. Caller’s truck missing from driveway; repossessed. Bank error, vehicle will be returned
3:00 p.m. Suspicious vehicle, Hill St.
5:31 p.m. Fox hit, Holden Rd.
Saturday, August 20
12:07 p.m. Caller’s vehicle towed in error has not been returned to her, Pleasant St.
9:00 p.m. Loud fireworks going off in area, Keep Ave.
11:21 p.m. Multiple complaints about car alarm sounding in parking lot, Sunset Ln.
Sunday, August 21
11:14 a.m. Caller reports hunters on her property disobeying “no trespassing” signs, Pleasant St.
3:45 p.m. Caller found small white Bichon Frize, Holden Rd.
9:48 p.m. Rutland PD requests assistance with large under-age party, Wildwood Dr. One male in custody transported to Rutland PD station
Princeton
Monday, August 15
12:17 a.m. Police out with three individuals in parking lot, Fitchburg Rd.
8:29 a.m. Vehicle seen leaving abandoned state building on Mountain Rd. Area checked
10:16 a.m. Person at station to request traffic control on Goodnow Rd. due to camp
2:14 p.m. Officer requested for person spilling gasoline in parking lot, Rte.
140 N
Tuesday, August 16
11:55 p.m. At motor vehicle stop, police find vehicle reported stolen, Laurel Ln. Registry error
Wednesday, August 17
12:06 a.m. Suspicious vehicle parked in area of island, Clearings Way
1:12 p.m. Mailbox stolen, Coal Kiln Rd.
Thursday, August 18
1:45 a.m. Two males walking around house, Hubbardston Rd.
12:03 p.m. Suspicious vehicle, Hubbardston Rd.
4:31 p.m. Police assist animal control officer at several homes regarding unregistered dogs, Mountain Rd., Ball Hill Rd., Sharon Dr., Forslund Rd., Main St., Laurel Ln., Worcester Rd.
10:24 p.m. Police assist several people out walking who got lost, Mountain Rd. and Gregory Rd. Transport to ski area parking lot
Saturday, August 20
8:16 a.m. Complaint about barking dog, Ball Hill Rd.
8:41 a.m. Complaint about barking dog, Ball Hill Rd.
Sunday, August 21
12:13 a.m. Suspicious incident, lights on in home where people are supposed to be away, Hubbardston Rd. Owner is home
2:49 a.m. Complaint of dog barking since 10 p.m., Oak Cir. Owners away and dog is outside
8:15 a.m. Back door to school propped open with rock, Sterling Rd. Environmental Company is checking on building’s air quality
9:31 a.m. Very large dead porcupine in Ball Hill Rd.
1:18 p.m. Numerous gunshots in area of Ball Hill Rd.
9:12 p.m. Report of gunshots, Hobbs Rd/
Rutland
Monday, August  15
3:31 p.m. Caller advises he will be shooting a gun at the range on Turkey Hill Rd.
Tuesday, August 16
10:31 a.m. Horse lying down, Campbell St. Request for animal control officer to check it
11:54 a.m. Abandoned cat, River Rd.
4:56 p.m. Caller reports skunk on his property all day, Marjorie Ln.
5:25 p.m. Police out with hitchhiker, Main St./Kenwood Rd. Person given ride to Oakham town line
7:30 p.m. Suspicious vehicle, Main St.
7:31 p.m. Report of baby skunk in yard playing with caller’s dogs, Brunelle Dr.
8:34 p.m. Caller reports hearing two loud “pops” Walnut St.
8:36 p.m. Loud noise from parking lot, Maple Ave.
Wednesday, August 17
7:30 a.m. Person at station to fill out paperwork to go into Marines, Main St.
9:00 a.m. Two skunks in yard, Britney Dr.
12:20 p.m. Person at station reports being bitten by dog, Main St.
3:28 p.m. Police assist with vehicle lockout, child in vehicle, Wachusett St.
3:30 p.m. ATVs and dirt bike riding up and down roads in Welch Ave.area
4:39 p.m. Bike on front lawn of house for two days, Blueberry Ln.
9:31 p.m. Two people walking motor bikes on dark road, Barre Paxton Rd.
Thursday, August 18
3:37 p.m. Suspicious vehicle circling neighborhood, Edson Ave.
4:30 p.m. Four large cows in middle of Holden’s Bond St. or Rutland’s Prescott St. Another caller reports nine cows in road. Belong to farm in Holden.
Friday, August 19
6:25 p.m. Suspicious person wanting to come into house, Winifreds Way. Assessor’s office personnel.
8:01 p.m. Caller believes there is a cow in distress, Prescott St./Blueberry Ln.
Saturday, August 20
9:05 a.m. Girl’s bicycle beside road for long time, Wachusett St./Muschopauge Rd.
2:23 p.m. Kids skateboarding, person wants them removed, Main St.
7:33 p.m. Group of males going in and out of business and acting suspiciously, Main St.
10:16 p.m. Large skunk came into basement of home, Oakridge Dr.
Sunday, August 21
7:37 a.m. Small skunk stuck in cage, Rolling Ridge Rd.
11:04 p.m. Suspicious vehicle in driveway of home, Wildbrook Dr.
Sterling
Monday, August 15
9:53 a.m. Lancaster resident calling about two dogs she believes belong in Sterling, running loose on her property
5:33 p.m. Caller reports white pigeon in his house may be injured, Sherwood Dr.
Tuesday, August  16
7:45 a.m. Large brown dog barking in driveway, homeowner afraid to put out trash, Sunset Dr.
10:51 a.m. Missing Sheltie, Crawford Rd.
11:39 a.m. Ongoing problem with feral cats, Rowley Hill Rd.
2:17 p.m. Suspicious activity, truck dragging what appears to be bags, Pine Woods Ln.
5:54 p.m. Cat inside building and will not leave, Meetinghouse Hill Rd. Cat returned to owner
Wednesday, August 17

7:48 a.m. Complaint of barking dogs, ongoing problem, Heywood Rd.

11:50 p.m. Police check on vehicle parked beside Leominster Rd. Person having smoking break
11:51 p.m. Male wearing all black, with backpack and bike, walking toward center of town
Thursday, August 18
1:04 p.m. Motorist pulled over for assistance with unruly 12-year-old at residence, Bean Rd.
7:53 p.m. Caller says deranged female is walking by, yelling at her and her son, Riverview Rd.
Friday, August 19
4:50 p.m. Large crow in roadway, Maple St. Flew away when touched
5:10 p.m. Person found several bags marked HAZMAT in trash, illegal dumping, Chace Hill Rd.
5:13 p.m. Dog found on I-190, possibly hurt
5:26 p.m. White banded pigeon, Leominster Rd. Pigeon released
7:41 p.m. Complaint about noise from backhoe, Beaman Rd.
Saturday, August 20
9:56 a.m. Suspicious vehicle, two pickup trucks drove into yard, occupants started to walk around yard, Swett Hill Rd.
5:24 p.m. Pitbull puppy found, N. Row Rd.
11:51 p.m. Kids hanging around Patriots Way
Sunday, August 21
10:16 a.m. Baby coyote with possible broken leg in middle of George E. Peeso Ln.

Note to Sam's Club: don't display your home page on your iPad display model

While strolling through Sam's Club, I saw the iPad 2 on display, showing the Sam's Club page.

Not only is Adobe Flash Player not available for the iPad, but it probably won't ever be available.
Rule for all retailers: If you're going to demo your page on the iPad, make sure that it works on the iPad.

This is the point at which we yell at Facebook again

The new Facebook privacy settings and other user interface changes have shown up at Camp Roasterboy. It won't be pretty.
When trying to make a simple status update, this shows up.

What the hell? I chose not to have the new features explained to me right now. I want to do what I was able to do yesterday.
As one user observed about the arrogance of the Facebook development team, "That's so mean. They think so much of themselves."

Never let the absence of facts get in the way of your conclusion

Bloggers are often criticized, with cause, for failing to follow the basic practices of journalism. It's more disappointing when writers for major publications fail to do the same.
Recently, Christopher Carr told a story, in America's Most Wanted, about how Massachusetts state police shut down his stepson's green-tea stand.  "In what world is it acceptable for police officers to go around breaking up kids's drink stands?", Carr rhetorically asks, "What are we teaching our children?"
The story is thin on identifying details which is understandable since we're talking about what happen to a 12-year-old. The problems arise when we try, as Carr's blog intends, to elicit general principles from specific cases. If we are missing crucial details about the case, then our induction is will head off to unintended places. (The bizarre comment streams lead into fetid swamps.)
It gets worse, as I'll show in a moment, when a E. D. Kain, a writer for Forbes, picks up the story and brings it to the national level.

• It was Carr's idea to set up the stand. Carr chose the location.This wasn't a kid's project. It was an educational activity arranged by an adult.
• Carr's story doesn't get to the detail of what police officers said what to his stepson or why they said it. He declares that the local police wished the boy well and that the Massachusetts state police ("someone in brown") shut down the stand.
  On-duty Massachusetts state troopers wear blue uniforms. Commenters indicated that it may have been rangers, who generally wear brown uniforms, from the Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR).
• The location of the green-tea stand is never identified. As several commenters noted, if the stand was on public property, then DCR officers can ask that the stand be removed. 
• There was no contact between the police or an adult involved in this incident. We have the word of a 12-year-old that someone who looked like a cop said something. While we can believe that the boy is telling the truth, the story that he told isn't sufficient for us to draw any conclusions about police or society.
• Police, let alone state police or state agencies, rarely get involved in local code enforcement. The local health department is responsible for enforcement of codes regarding food safety and sale. Police typically get involved only after other avenues have been used and rarely on their own initiative.

A blogger overreaches. Fine. It happens often. I've done it on several occasions, even to the point of taking down blog posts when I've realized that I was off-base.
When the aforementioned E. D. Kain includes the green-tea stand story in a blog post about the war against kids, it gets really weird.

Lemonade stand shutdowns may not be the same violation of liberty that no-knock botched SWAT raids or the incarceration of innocent people are, but they reflect the same mentality. It’s the mentality that needs reforming. No simple task.

via Twelve-Year-Old's Green Tea Stand Shut Down in Massachusetts - Forbes

Kain updates his article three times with new information which, as he admits, "So a lot of confusion obviously exists around the events described in Christopher’s blog post. This is understandable, but I don’t think it means we’re any closer to any conclusive answers."
This lack of conclusive answers hasn't stopped either writer from backing off from the conclusions that police all over the country are engaged in a war on childhood by shutting down lemonade stands and related entrepreneurial ventures.
At several points, Kain notes that police aren't acting on their own, that they're just enforcing local laws and policies. 

I think it’s also important to note that someone in the government shut down a twelve-year-old kid’s green-tea stand. Whether this was state police, rangers, or the mayor doesn’t really matter. The state is cracking down on kids selling drinks for fun.

It does matter which police department was involved because they were responding to an adult's decision, not a kid's idea.
It also matters because, without a reasonably complete set of facts, you can't reason your way to general principles. Adults need to know that if they're going to be good teachers. Journalists need to know that because that's their job.

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Full disclosure: my son is a member of the Massachusetts state police. It was the mention of the state police that drew my attention to these stories.
My comments do not necessarily his views or those of the Massachusetts state police. I did not contact him or the state police regarding this post.