Sunday, March 30, 2008

The state of the retail economy

This article, Penney’s Warning Adds to Retail Gloom, from yesterday's New York Times, is the latest in a relentless parade of news stories about our troubled economy. When we walk through midrange or upscale malls, the dispirited atmosphere is too much to take. If it was not for the teenagers, preening and parading, there'd be no energy at all in these joyless caverns.

The business articles have a lot to say about demographics, marketing programs, and earnings-per-share. What the articles don't say, however, is that, in store after store, pretty much all that they have to sell is crap. If you took down the signs over each doorway, I doubt that your typical shopper could tell which store you're in. The clothing and housewares in Penney's is nearly the same as in Sears. You've got three stores specializing in sneakers, but the department stores have sneakers, too. Chico's, Coldwater Creek, Express, and The Limited are, imo, indistinguishable. I believe that a third to a half of the stores could go under and few people would notice. We'd notice the empty storefronts, but we wouldn't feel pinched by reduced choices.

So, here's a tip for American retailers, sell good stuff at a decent price or close up shop and do something else.

You know, it used to be that we'd measure the health of the American economy by what we produced -first the Gross National Product, now called the Gross Domestic Product. Now, our excitement is about how much we can spend. What's the bellwether of the economy? Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, when we show the world how insane we are about our shopping. If we're not good shoppers, we'll all be sad when Baby Jesus comes on Christmas Day. I'm sure that Baby Jesus will be sad alright, but not for the reasons that we think.

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