---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: SkyWarn Announcement List <SkyWarn-list@oak.powersrvcs.net>
Date: Sun, Aug 29, 2010 at 7:19 AM
Subject: Tropical Storm Earl Coordination Message #1
To: Skywarn-list@oak.powersrvcs.net
Hello to all..
..Tropical Storm Earl is expected to intensify into a hurricane later today with impacts to the Northern Leeward Islands and then intensify into a major hurricane over the next 3 days as it gradually turns west-northwest to northwest in the Western Atlantic Ocean..
..Latest computer models suggest a 'glancing blow' of minimal tropical storm force conditions to Cape Cod and the Islands in the late Thursday Night to Friday Night timeframe with the potential of a more western track towards the coast based on other reliable computer models. Track guidance can change considerably over the next several days to be either closer or further away from the coast..
..Interests in Southern New England should begin monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Earl. This message's intent, at this very early stage, is to have folks begin that monitoring process..
Tropical Storm Earl is expected to strengthen into a hurricane today and pass near or just north of the Northern Leeward Islands late tonight and Monday. This may prompt the activation of the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, and the HF Hurricane Watch Net and VoIP Hurricane Net late tonight or Monday depending on Earl's anticipated intensification and how close it approaches the islands. Earl will affect portion of the Northern Leeward Islands with tropical storm force conditions but its hurricane force conditions may stay just offshore though any slight deviation to the south may result in hurricane force conditions over parts of the Northern Leeward Islands.
After Earl's passage near the Northern Leeward Islands, Earl is expected to continue west-northwestward and then eventually northwestward and northward over the next several days intensifying into a major hurricane. Some of the latest computer models indicate a track far enough way from Southern New England to spare a direct hit but close enough to provide a glancing blow of minimal tropical storm force conditions to Cape Cod and the Islands in the late Thursday Night to Friday Night timeframe. Other reliable computer models bring Earl much closer to Southern New England in that timeframe and if that were to verify, more significant conditions would affect a larger portion of the region.
It is too early to say what the eventual track from Earl will be. Right now, tracks on Earl range from a 'glancing blow' to a possible direct impact. Later today or as we go through the week, one of those solutions could verify or Earl could be further out to sea. The purpose of this coordination message is to create situational awareness for SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Emergency Management to prepare to monitor this system. This is based on Earl's mention in the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion.
Regardless of the track, swells and rip currents that have started from Hurricane Danielle and resulting in a High Surf Advisory for much of today over Cape Cod and the Islands may wane as Danielle departs further out to sea only to increase and become more significant than today as Earl tracks closer to the region later this week. There have been many times where offshore tropical systems have caused injuries or fatalities on the water from the surf and rip currents so folks swimming at area beaches over the next several days with the hot weather expected are advise to heed the advice of lifeguards and monitor NWS Taunton products for high surf advisory information. See link below for the NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory statement for today and for future statements and also the surf zone forecasts for more information:
NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus51.KBOX.html
Once again, Tropical Storm Earl should be monitored by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Earl are listed below:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
National Hurricane Center - Miami Florida Information:
Tropical Storm Earl Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Earl Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Earl Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Earl Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html
The next coordination message will likely be posted some time on Monday pending further computer model data on the track of Earl and significant updates to Earl's status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
From: SkyWarn Announcement List <SkyWarn-list@oak.powersrvcs.net>
Date: Sun, Aug 29, 2010 at 7:19 AM
Subject: Tropical Storm Earl Coordination Message #1
To: Skywarn-list@oak.powersrvcs.net
Hello to all..
..Tropical Storm Earl is expected to intensify into a hurricane later today with impacts to the Northern Leeward Islands and then intensify into a major hurricane over the next 3 days as it gradually turns west-northwest to northwest in the Western Atlantic Ocean..
..Latest computer models suggest a 'glancing blow' of minimal tropical storm force conditions to Cape Cod and the Islands in the late Thursday Night to Friday Night timeframe with the potential of a more western track towards the coast based on other reliable computer models. Track guidance can change considerably over the next several days to be either closer or further away from the coast..
..Interests in Southern New England should begin monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Earl. This message's intent, at this very early stage, is to have folks begin that monitoring process..
Tropical Storm Earl is expected to strengthen into a hurricane today and pass near or just north of the Northern Leeward Islands late tonight and Monday. This may prompt the activation of the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, and the HF Hurricane Watch Net and VoIP Hurricane Net late tonight or Monday depending on Earl's anticipated intensification and how close it approaches the islands. Earl will affect portion of the Northern Leeward Islands with tropical storm force conditions but its hurricane force conditions may stay just offshore though any slight deviation to the south may result in hurricane force conditions over parts of the Northern Leeward Islands.
After Earl's passage near the Northern Leeward Islands, Earl is expected to continue west-northwestward and then eventually northwestward and northward over the next several days intensifying into a major hurricane. Some of the latest computer models indicate a track far enough way from Southern New England to spare a direct hit but close enough to provide a glancing blow of minimal tropical storm force conditions to Cape Cod and the Islands in the late Thursday Night to Friday Night timeframe. Other reliable computer models bring Earl much closer to Southern New England in that timeframe and if that were to verify, more significant conditions would affect a larger portion of the region.
It is too early to say what the eventual track from Earl will be. Right now, tracks on Earl range from a 'glancing blow' to a possible direct impact. Later today or as we go through the week, one of those solutions could verify or Earl could be further out to sea. The purpose of this coordination message is to create situational awareness for SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Emergency Management to prepare to monitor this system. This is based on Earl's mention in the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion.
Regardless of the track, swells and rip currents that have started from Hurricane Danielle and resulting in a High Surf Advisory for much of today over Cape Cod and the Islands may wane as Danielle departs further out to sea only to increase and become more significant than today as Earl tracks closer to the region later this week. There have been many times where offshore tropical systems have caused injuries or fatalities on the water from the surf and rip currents so folks swimming at area beaches over the next several days with the hot weather expected are advise to heed the advice of lifeguards and monitor NWS Taunton products for high surf advisory information. See link below for the NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory statement for today and for future statements and also the surf zone forecasts for more information:
NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus51.KBOX.html
Once again, Tropical Storm Earl should be monitored by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Earl are listed below:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
National Hurricane Center - Miami Florida Information:
Tropical Storm Earl Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Earl Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Earl Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Earl Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html
The next coordination message will likely be posted some time on Monday pending further computer model data on the track of Earl and significant updates to Earl's status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
No comments:
Post a Comment