From: SkyWarn Announcement List <SkyWarn-list@oak.powersrvcs.net>
Date: Thu, Jun 24, 2010 at 7:11 AM
Subject: Severe Weather Coordination Message #2
To: Skywarn-list@oak.powersrvcs.net
Hello to all..
..Potential exists for a Major Severe Weather Outbreak Across much of
interior Southern New England this Thursday Afternoon and evening as a
very strong cold front coupled with a potentially very unstable
atmosphere provides the focus for the potential severe thunderstorms
in widespread pockets over much of the NWS Taunton County Warning
Area. Damaging Winds in widespread pockets and Large Hail are the
primary threats with urban and poor drainage flooding also possible
and an isolated tornado and/or waterspout also possible. SPC has
placed much of the region in a 'high-end' Slight Risk for Severe
Weather and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime
beginning around 11 AM-Noon Thursday and lasting through early
evening..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the
progress of this potential severe weather episode over the next 18
hours..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend weather may have some level of
issues with a threat of thunderstorms Saturday Evening which will be
reviewed more thoroughly after the Thursday event has passed. Amateur
Radio Field Day Weekend messages will commence on Thursday Evening..
At 700 AM, Doppler Radar showed a decaying area of showers and
thunderstorms from thundestorm complexes that formed overnight. This
activity is weakening rapidly. Cloud cover associated with this
activity may slow heating for a few hours but there remains breaks in
the cloudiness sufficient to realize heating to at least the upper 80s
to 90 degrees with low 90 degree temperastures possible. Renewed
activity will form as we get into the early afternoon hours and will
have the potential to become severe fairly rapidly.
The potential exists once again similar to the Sunday June 6th event
of a Major Severe Weather Outbreak across interior Southern New
England. Damaging Winds, Urban/Poor Drainage Flooding and Large Hail
are the primary threats though an isolated tornado and/or waterspout
will also be possible. A very warm humid air mass will be in place
across Southern New England with temperatures soaring into the upper
80s to low 90s with dewpoints in around 70 to the lower 70s. Winds
aloft will once again be very strong similar to June 6th. With the
intense heating and destablization coupled with the strong shear
aloft, the potential exists for a major severe weather outbreak in
interior Southern New England that could bring numerous severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind potential and widespread 'pockets' of
wind damage where numerous cities and towns have neighborhoods
affected by wind damage, large hail, and urban and poor drainage
flooding all threats. Given the shear and destablization!
, an isolated tornado and/or waterspout cannot be ruled out though
history dictates more of a linear wind damage threat. The level of
expected destablization and shear, however, could support an isolated
tornado or waterspout.
The caveats to the severe weather threat for Thursday concerning the
timing of the cold front and pre-frontal trough seems to be a
non-factor at this stage as the frontal timing near or at the time of
peak heating continues to look good based on current trends. The
second caveat concerning cloud cover seems to be a low risk as the
current decaying complexes of showers and thunderstorms continues to
weaken rapidly and there is still sufficient breaks in the cloud cover
to allow for fairly intense heating.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime
beginning around 11 AM-Noon Thursday and lasting through early
evening. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely
monitor the progress of this potential severe weather episode over the
next 24 hours. This will be the last complete coordination message on
this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time
allows when Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated and if there is any
further upgrade on the severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton
Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend weather may have some level of issues
with a threat of thunderstorms Saturday Evening which will be reviewed
more thoroughly after the Thursday event has passed. Amateur Radio
Field Day Weekend messages will commence on Thursday Evening.
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
--
Karl A. Hakkarainen
www.roasterboy.com
No comments:
Post a Comment